Mixed
Signals for Holidays |
By Ed Moosbrugger
November 26 -- At Adamm’s Stained Glass & Gallery
on 4th Street, owner Adamm Gritlefeld is well stocked for the holiday
season even though he’s not sure how things will turn out.
“I don’t think it will be a great holiday season,”
he said. Gritlefeld is making this prediction based on summer business
being a little slow.
But Gritlefeld isn’t giving up hope for a good November and
December.
“I’m going to be prepared,” he said. “I
don’t think you can cut back. I ordered a lot of inventory.”
Indeed, he has added some new artists.
Gritlefeld’s situation reflects the mixed signals that retailers
are receiving about holiday prospects.
Although there are some positive signs, there are also caution flags,
leaving the likelihood that there will be only modest sales gains
this year as economic growth slows.
A special note of uncertainty for Downtown Santa Monica retailers
arose in early November with the Hollywood writers’ strike.
Numerous entertainment companies are based in Downtown Santa Monica
and the Westside, leaving the possibility that a prolonged strike
would hurt local retail spending.
Despite the uncertain outlook and a rash of conflicting reports
on the condition of the economy and retail sales, some Downtown
Santa Monica merchants expect a solid holiday season.
“I think that it’s going to be good – at least
as good as last year – if not better,” said Jay Demircift,
president of Puzzle Zoo on the Third Street Promenade. He reported
that business is up so far this year.
For the holidays, Puzzle Zoo will offer basic toys and some electronics,
as well as some futuristic items, including a robot, Demircift said.
“I’m very optimistic about this holiday,” said
Tony Ayoub, owner of the Jewel Shop. “There is nothing to
slow down action on the Promenade.”
Ayoub remodeled his store on the Promenade this year and said he
had a good summer, aided by the decline in the U.S. dollar which
boosted tourism from Europe, particularly the United Kingdom.
Ayoub also changed his merchandise mix to put increased emphasis
on more expensive items.
Candy Baron owner Ron Baron expects a good Christmas season, comparable
to last year, for his five stores.
His Santa Monica store on Santa Monica Boulevard is doing very well,
Baron reported.
“We’ve been up from last year at all our stores,”
Baron said.
Gritlefeld said tourists didn’t seem to be spending as much
this summer as in the past, and pricier items weren’t moving
as well.
But he’s ready for improvement.
“Sometimes you don’t know until two weeks before Christmas,”
Gritlefeld said.
Meanwhile, U.S. retail chains will probably post a 2.5 percent increase
in sales at stores open at least a year in November and December,
according to Michael P. Niemira, chief economist of the International
Council of Shopping Centers. He expects heavy promotion, including
coupons and price cuts.
“Sales will be mixed and retailers will be offering promotions
to drive traffic and sales this year,” he said in late October.
Earlier, the National Retail Federation said holiday sales are expected
to grow at the slowest rate since 2002. It sees a gain of 4.0 percent
this year versus 4.6 percent last year. The forecast excludes some
categories, including auto dealers, restaurants and online sales.
Among the bright spots this holiday season, according to various
reports, will be consumer electronics, while apparel faces a mixed
outlook.
SANTA MONICA HOTELS posted the highest occupancy rate in Los Angeles
County in both August and the first eight months of 2007 among submarkets
tracked by PKF Consulting.
Santa Monica scored a strong 91.2 occupancy rate in August, up 1.7
percent from a year earlier. For the eight months, occupancy rose
0.3 percent to 83.9 percent. Santa Monica was the only submarket
in the county to top 90 percent in August this year.
The average room rate increased 11.2 percent to $310.52 in August
at Santa Monica hotels surveyed by PKF. For the eight months, rates
rose 9.6 percent to $277.53.
THIS YEAR’S American Film Market pumped about $13 to $14 million
in direct spending into Santa Monica, according to an estimate released
by the Santa Monica Convention & Visitors Bureau just before
the annual event kicked off on Halloween.
About $4.5 million of that was spent at hotels. Attendees took an
estimated 12,000 room nights, with most hotels participating.
The AFM, which attracts about 8,000 attendees from around the world,
utilizes Downtown movie theaters to screen films.
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