Placing Importance on the Ballot

By Jorge Casuso

September 7 – If the races for City Council and College and School boards prove to be as tight as some predict, Terry O’Day, Nancy Greenstein and Oscar de la Torre may have a leg up on the other contenders.

All three will top the list of candidates on their prospective ballots, which are crowded at the top with incumbents, giving most of those seeking reelection what could be a distinct edge.

In the November race for three open council seats, O’Day is followed on the ten-candidate ballot by Council member Pam O’Connor and Mayor Bob Holbrook, who are seeking their fourth and fifth terms respectively.

Greenstein is the only incumbent in the race for four open seats on the College Board, while de la Torre is followed on the ballot by incumbents Emily Bloomfield and Shane McCloud in the race for four open School Board seats.

While incumbency is widely viewed as an advantage, being at or near the top of the ballot can give a candidate a slight advantage, especially in a hotly contested race, political experts contend.

“In a very close race, it could mean the margin of difference,” said Bruce Cameron, a member of the Santa Monicans for Renters’ Rights (SMRR) steering committee and a longtime political observer.

“In a very close race, it could be significant,” said Steve Alpert, a fellow SMRR member who has closely followed local elections for more than two decades.

Ballot placement won’t make a difference in races with few candidates, such as those for School and College boards, where six candidates are vying for four open seats, Alpert said.

But where a candidate is listed on a crowded ballot, such as that for council, could be a significant factor in a close race, Alpert said.

“The best place is the first place; second best is the last place,” Alpert said. “They stand out separate from everything. The worst place is somewhere in the middle. If you’re stuck in the middle, it’s not a good place”

While the first place on the council ballot is occupied by O’Day, a planning commissioner making his first bid for elected office, the last spot is occupied by Linda Armstrong, who finished last in the council race two years ago.

Between Holbrook in the third slot and Armstrong in the tenth are candidates Gleam Davis in the fourth position, followed by Mark C. McLellan, incumbent Council member Kevin McKeown, Jonathan Mann (who finished second to last two years ago), Jenna Linnekens and Terrance Later.

Some political observers believe ballot placement plays a lesser role in a politically savvy city such as Santa Monica than it does in cities with a less informed electorate.

“Santa Monica voters are fairly engaged,” said former mayor Dennis Zane, a political consultant and co-chair of SMRR. “People learn a lot about the candidates, so ballot order is marginal.”

Ballot placement, however, could gain importance if voters are drawn to the polls by a high-profile race at the top of the ticket.

“In the governor’s race, (ballot placement) generally doesn’t matter,” Cameron said. “The further down you go, it makes a difference if you don’t know the candidates.”

If good placement on a crowded ballot could give a candidate a leg up, there are other more important factors, such as a candidate’s list of endorsements, Cameron said.

Turnout, which has dwindled from more than 60 percent in governors’ races two decades ago to 54 percent four years ago, also is a significant factor, Alpert said.

If the downward trend continues, it could hurt SMRR, which is clinging to a one-seat majority on a City Council the powerful tenants’ group has dominated for most of the past quarter century.

“Traditionally, the bigger the turnout, the more renters voting,” Alpert said. “I think the turnout is very worrisome.”

Following are links to the ballots for the following races:

City Council
College Board
School Board
Rent Board