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By Ann K. Williams
Lookout Staff

September 9, 2011 -- Ten years after 9/11, a RAND study suggests that there are few home-grown jihadists in America, most of them aren't into suicide attacks, and they seem incompetent when it comes to building their own bombs.

Despite a growing virtual world of al Qaeda recruitment on the Internet, the actual number of violent jihadists in this country is small – 176 known individuals in the last ten years – and many of the recent converts to the cause are responding to the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopian Christians, according to an analysis by Brian Michael Jenkins, senior advisor to the RAND Corporation's President.

"America's homegrown jihadist terrorists have not shown great determination or very much competence," said Jenkins. "A careful analysis of these cases shows that the United States must remain vigilant, but not overreact."

“Most of the 32 plots to carry out terrorist attacks in the United States never got beyond the discussion stage, and most of those that did were stings in which the FBI provided fake bombs,” Jenkins wrote in his recent paper “Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11.”

In the years since al Qaeda brought the twin towers down, the terrorist group's American operatives have killed a total of 14 people in the United States – a country with an annual homicide rate of between 15,000 and 20,000 a year, Jenkins observed.

The figure indicates “not merely a fortunate lack of competence but also a certain half-heartedness on the part of American jihadists,” he wrote.

Only one – Somali-American Shirwa Ahmed – conducted a suicide attack, in Somalia. In fact, Osama bin Laden was said to have been disappointed by American jihadists' reluctance to make al Qaeda's signature sacrifice, Jenkins wrote.

And when it comes to making bombs, apparently most American followers of al Qaeda aren't able to succeed on their own. In only two of the 32 plots to carry out terrorist acts uncovered in the United State since 9/11 did the individual jihadists even try to make their own bombs. One of their devices failed. The other individual was arrested before his could go off.

The other cases involving explosive devices were FBI stings – the agents provided fake bombs.

American jihadists Nidal Hasan and Adbulhakim Bledsoe used guns for the two fatal attacks since 2001.

The small number of individual American jihadists indicates that most Muslim-Americans don't support violent radical interpretations of their religion, although religion doesn't provide “immunity” from “legitimate intelligence and law enforcement,” Jenkins wrote. While most American-born jihadists are Muslims, they only represent some 6 out of every 100,000 Muslim-Americans.

But Jenkins – a former Green Beret who's been a national expert on terrorism for decades – does take the American jihadist threat seriously.

The past two years have seen a rise in the number of cases of home-grown terrorism, with 20 cases in 2010 – the highest number of cases per year since 9/11.

More than half of those cases involve jihadist opposition to the Ethiopian Christian invasion of Somalia in 2006. Somali refugee youth in America are particularly susceptible to al Qaeda recruitment, Jenkins wrote, because their community is plagued by gangs, unemployment is high, and many are poorly equipped to assimilate. Jihad in Somalia offers these young men “an alluringly dangerous adventure.”

Policing and intelligence efforts focused on community cooperation and prevention are the the key to sustained success in the face of the terrorist threat on U.S. soil, Jenkins wrote.

“America still works,” he said.

“Needless alarm, exaggerated portrayals of the terrorist threat, unrealistic expectations of a risk-free society, and unreasonable demands for absolute protection will only encourage terrorists,” wrote Jenkins. “Panic is the wrong message to send to America’s terrorist foes.”

Jenkins has also edited a book of essays by RAND scientists taking stock of the U.S. reaction to the 9/11 attack on the occasion of its tenth anniversary. The book, “The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism,” can be read online or purchased at the RAND website.

To read or purchase “Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11,” click here.