By Lookout Staff

July 29, 2011 – Contrary to popular assumptions, fewer Mexican immigrants living in the United States returned home during the height of the recent recession, experts at RAND Corporation say.

The Santa Monica-based research institution sponsored a study, published by the online journal Demography, that tracked migration trends by using data collected by the Mexican government.

“The recession in the United States and the global financial crisis did not increase the number of immigrants returning to Mexico,” said Michael Rendall, the study's lead author and director of the RAND Population Research Center.

“Migration in both directions between the United States and Mexico slowed during the recession, but our findings show there was no rush by Mexican immigrants to return home.”

Using information collected by Mexico's National Survey of Occupation and Employment – after conducting an analysis that validated the data's reliability – Rendall's team found that numbers of returnees among migrants dropped during the height of the recession.

“For example, while return migration to Mexico during the fourth quarters of 2006 and 2007 totaled 117,120 and 133,490, the numbers dropped to 95,238 and 79,959 during the fourth quarters of 2008 and 2009,” RAND researchers say.

The research showed a downturn in return migration among men in labor-migrant groups, in 18- to 40-year old migrants without a college education, and in total return migration in the last quarter of 2008, when the global financial crisis began.

The findings are consistent with demographic trends among European immigrants, and among Mexican immigrants to the United States during earlier economic slowdowns, researchers say.

“Experience shows that economic troubles slow migration in both directions across a border,” said Rendall.

“The Mexican immigrants who are in the United States have not been returning to Mexico in larger-than-usual numbers, but inflow into the United States has fallen sharply,” he said.

Why this seemingly counterintuitive pattern holds true is subject to speculation, but Rendall's team offers at least one explanation.

They theorize that immigrants who come to the United States from Mexico may stay here until they've saved a fixed amount of money.

"This theory suggests that immigrants stay in the United States until they have achieved a certain levels of savings, even if they face a period when their earnings drop and employment becomes harder to find," Rendall said.

The study was based on information collected by Mexico's National Survey of Occupation and Employment, a quarterly survey of 100,000 households that asks a wide variety of questions about family members. Among the questions asked is whether households have new members who were in another country during the previous quarter.

The study was supported by funding from the National Institute of Aging and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Other authors of the study are Peter Brownell and Sarah Kups.

The research was conducted through the RAND Labor and Population program, which examines issues involving U.S. labor markets, the demographics of families and children, social welfare policy, the social and economic functioning of the elderly, and economic and social change in developing countries.

For information on RAND studies, go to www.rand.org

“The recession in the United States and the global financial crisis did not increase the number of immigrants returning to Mexico”
    Michael Rendall